Special
Reports/Water Crisis |
Controversial dam issues
The country is facing serious water shortage for farming to
meet the food and energy requirements of the burgeoning
population. The population of 32.4 million in 1948 increased
to 152.4 million in 2004-05 and is estimated to increase to
220 million by 2025.Even the conservative estimates indicate
that it may increase to 208 million by this time.
As
a result, Pakistan will have a shortfall of 11 million tons of
major food grains by 2010 and 16 million tons by 2020. This
food grain deficit will increase to 28 million tons by 2025 .
This reflects on the grave situation that the country will
face unless a policy decision on the construction of new dams
is taken, purely on technical and economical rather than on
political grounds. It is a tragedy that none of the previous
governments took any decision to build new major dam/reservoir
after the construction of Tarbela reservoir in 1976.
On the other hand, the original storage capacity of 15.24 maf
of Mangala Dam(5.34), Chashma Barrage (0.5 maf) and Tarbela
Reservoir(9.40MAF) has declined by 4.68 maf by 2003 due to
sedimentation and may further decrease by six maf by 2010.
Since the issue has been highly politicized, a review of the
Indus River System and its potential is made as under :
The flow of River Indus and its tributaries constitute the
main source of surface water for the country. According to the
Indus Water Treaty, the flow of three eastern rivers namely
Beas, Sutlej and Ravi was conceded to India, while Pakistan is
mostly dependent on three western rivers— Indus (including
Kabul),Jhelum and Chenab. The decision though more favourable
to India was agreed by General Ayub Khan.
The completion by India of Wuller ,Bagliar and Krishanganga ,
Uri-11Pakal Dul and Burser projects on western rivers of
Indus, Jhelum and Chenab to which Pakistan has the exclusive
right according to the 1960 Indus Basin Treaty, will create
serious water shortage. It will also enable India to divert
water of western rivers as it already did once and created
problems for Pakistan. Moreover, India can release water from
eastern rivers during high floods, thus damaging crops in
adjoining the areas along the eastern rivers in Pakistan’s
Punjab.
It is argued by the opposition parties in NWPP that
construction of Kalabagh Dam will flood Noshera and lot of
fertile areas will be waterlogged,besides displacing a large
number of people. It is interesting that General Ayub Khan
decided to built Tarbela Reservoir in Haripur and adjoining
areas in NWFP instead of Kalabagh Dam in spite of the fact
that there was not that much opposition at that time to build
it.
Moreover, the initial loan taken from the World Bank for the
construction of Kalabagh was diverted for the construction of
Tarbela Reservoir. Thousands of people were displaced and vast
area was covered by Tarbela Reservoir and water-logging.But
none of these opposition parties of NWFP raised any objection
at that time as they are making now ,because royalty for
hydropower of this reservoir was to be made to NWFP.
Punjab did not oppose these twin decisions of General Ayub
Khan but also provided land to most of the people displaced
due to the construction of Tarbela.
Again, the opposition parties are agitating against the
construction of Kalabagh Dam, because it will cover lot of
land of NWFP and displace thousands of people of the province.
But they agree for the construction of Bhasha and other dams
in Northern areas, despite the fact that Kalabagh Dam will
cover 2900 acres and displace 42000 people of NWFP, while the
rest be built in much bigger area and people displaced will be
from Punjab. Bhasha Dam will cover 32000 acres and displace 24
000 people,Akhori Dam will cover 59,200 acres and displace
49,300 people.
Similarly, Skardu-Katzara Dam highly recommended by the
technical committee on water resources as the best option, may
cover 90,000 acres and displace nearly 160,000peple. Besides,
these dams are situated in seismic areas with greater chance
of damage as compared to Kalabagh. The politicians should
learn a lesson from an earthquake of October 8, 2005 followed
by over 1563 seismics of different Ritchter scales.
Besides construction of Bhasha Dam will not only be more
expensive and cover good chunk of Karakaram Highway creating
problems of having alternate logistic links with China
essential for the country’s defence and trade.
The fear of Nowshera being drowned if Kalabagh Dam is to be
built, has already been dealt with technically by reducing the
height of Kalabagh dam by 10 feet. Construction of Munda Dam
simultaneously on River Swat will further remove the risk of
flooding Nowshera. Again, Charsada and Mardan are over 50 feet
higher than the height of the Kalabagh Dam. As a result, these
areas will not be affected by seepage. Other reason for
agreeing to Bhasha and other dams over Kalabagh Dam by the
opposition parties is that Punjab will not be able to get link
canals from any one of the other dams built upstream.
In spite of the fact that power generation of 3600-MW of
Kalabagh would have no logistic problem and would be much
cheaper for the consumers as compared to that generated at
Bhasha due to logistic problems of longer distance and higher
cost of installation of power turbines, NWFP insists on the
construction of Bhasha Dam. The main reason is that it will
enable the province to claim royalty as the power turbines
will be located in the province.
Various figures were given by Wapda and national and
international consultants for the loss of Indus water to the
sea below Kotri since the commissioning of Tarbela Reservoir
since 2003. These figures vary mostly between 30-40MAF.
However, according to the Report of the technical committee on
Water Resources (Annexure 11-6), the escapage of water below
Kotri is 34.65 maf. But the seven members of the committee in
their report of May 2005 have worked out their own
computations of average water availability on down steam basis
as 32.70 maf.
Again, different figures varying from 10 to over 10 maf of
water have been given for down flow from Kotri to prevent sea
intrusion and adverse effects on mangroves along the Sindh
coast and protection of fish fauna.It is strange that the
Technical Committee on Water Resources has not bothered to
mention the potential of saving this water by constructing
dyke along the sea intrusion zone and using this additional
saved water according to 1991 Agreement for water distribution
to various provinces.
If a country like Holland situated below sea level can protect
it self by constructing dykes along its sea shore, why this
technology could not be used along the sea intrusion zone in
Pakistan for saving its precious water resource.
The Technical Committee on Water Resources indicates that
storable surplus water is available only for 10 years out of
28 years on the basis of post-Tarbela period flows. The study
also reveals that a dam of 6.0 maf at Kalabagh will be able to
trap only 22 per cent of the surplus flood flows, while
another dam of 6.0 maf will trap 18.9 per cent of the flood
flows. These two dams together will trap about 41 per cent of
surplus water and the rest 59 per cent of surplus flows will
still remain un-utilized.
They further stated that a carryover dam like Skardu-Katzara
with 35 maf capacity will utilize 84 per cent of this surplus
water. However Wapda differed with this figure and stated that
it will have carry over capacity of 27 maf. The technical
committee recommended Kalabagh, Bhasha and Skardu-Katzara
dam(with greater storage life period) and recommended greater
priority for completing feasibility study of the last one , as
the feasibility studies of the earlier two dams have already
been completed.
Nevertheless, other members of the technical committee have
divergent views than those of the Chairman of the Committee Mr
Abbasi.
It is also surprising that this technical committee did not
mention any thing on desalination of our huge sea water
resource and using it for drinking and agricultural purposes
along our 1050 km coastal region in Sindh and Balochistan.
There are over 200 centres in the world where sea water is
being desalinized for drinking and agricultural purposes by
utilizing the latest economical desalination technologies.
Nevertheless, it augurs well for the country that a decision
has been finally taken by the government that the construction
of Basha and Munda Dams will start from February, 2006 and
that of other dams including Kalabagh, Akori, Skurdu-katzara
etc, etc will be considered later on.
Courtesy :
The DAWN
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Pakissan.com;
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