FAS Weekly Attache Report Digest
September 21, 2002

AUSTRALIA, September 12, 2002 -- Post forecasts an eight percent increase in cattle slaughter for CY 2003 to 9.7 million head, the highest slaughter figure since 1978. Beef production for CY 2003 is forecast to rise seven percent to 2,050 TMT. Exports of beef & veal for CY 2003 are forecast by post to increase by over 12 percent to a record 1,600 TMT, driven by an increased slaughter and an improved outlook for exports. Sheepmeat production for CY 2003 is forecast to increase by nearly three percent to 688,000 MT. Post forecasts pig meat production to remain unchanged in CY 2003.

JAPAN, September 12, 2002 -- Broiler demand expected to ease in 2003, as beef demand recovers from BSE. Imports are expected to fall 7% in 2003 due to weak demand. Imports of U.S. poultry, which are expected to fall sharply in 2002, will slowly recover next year. Import demand for eggs is expected to rise by 2% in 2003, due to smaller domestic supplies. Demand for imported processed egg products is expected to increase.

TAIWAN, September 12, 2002 -- Taiwan's pig production is forecast to recover in 2003 in response to high 2002 prices. At the same time, U.S. exports of beef and some pork products are expected to increase because of Taiwan's improved economic prospects and WTO accession. With Taiwan's WTO accession on January 1, 2002, imports of beef variety meats were liberalized while trade in pork bellies and variety meats were moved to a Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQ) system. The TRQ's will increase from year to year until full liberalization in 2005.

SOUTH AFRICA, REPUBLIC OF, September 12, 2002 -- In 2001, South Africa's planted seed production is estimated at about 139,000 MT, an increase of about 37% from a year earlier. South Africa's new biotechnology developments include : the establishment of an Innovation Hub for modern technologies, a provincial Biotechnology Incubator, a Biotechnology Venture Capital fund, and the draft Biotechnology Strategy.

CANADA, September 12, 2002 -- Lower cattle inventories point to reduced Canadian beef output in 2003 and 2004. Increasing hog numbers are expected to result in record hog production in 2003 and record pork exports.

POLAND, September 12, 2002 -- After record CY2001 apple production, the crop in CY 2002 is expected to decline 25 percent mainly because of unfavorable weather conditions in April-May 2002. Lower apple production will result in lower concentrated apple juice production. To cover fresh fruit demand, Poland could increase apple imports. Concentrated apple juice exports, virtually all destined for the EU, are forecast to drop over 10 percent.

MEXICO, September 12, 2002 -- On September 2, 2002, Mexico's Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA) published the prolongation of the emergency regulation NOM-EM-ZOO-2002, Technical Specifications for the Control in the use of beta-agonists in animals. This regulation will continue in effect until March 2, 2003.

JAPAN, September 12, 2002 -- With China leading the roster of key exporters to Japan, Japanese wood furniture imports grew 15.7% in 2001 from the previous year. Overall furniture imports, including steel and wood furniture as well as related accessary parts, also grew 12.8% from the preceding year.

POLAND, September 13, 2002 -- The average Pole consumes almost 7 kg of citrus fruit per year; an increase in consumption of grapefruit and oranges is expected in the near future. U.S. sales of grapefruit to Poland are making a dramatic comeback after significant decreases in the year 2000. Prior to 2000, U.S. exports had been increasing steadily over a span of several years. Exports in 2001 showed a 60% recovery, increasing from 4,237 MT to 7,164 MT. Further increases are expected as a result of the September 2002 import duty reduction from 15% down to 5% applied to U.S. grapefruit.

POLAND, September 13, 2002 -- U.S. wine imports by Poland increased 65 percent between 2001 and 1999, reaching $2.5 million in value. Poles have been exploring different types and flavors of wine, increasing overall consumption, which has been predicted to increase 10-15% annually. California held its first industry-wide wine tasting in May 2002 in Poland. Wine tastings as a marketing tool are gaining popularity. In September 2002, a U.S-Polish agreement reduced key import duties from 30 down to 20 percent. Poland's probable EU accession in 2004 will result in duty free access for EU wines, but also ratchet down current import duties for non-EU suppliers.

NETHERLANDS, September 13, 2002 -- The production of apples is estimated this year at 355,000 MT, 25 percent less than last year, with stable per capita consumption. The import of apples is estimated higher this coming year, while exports are expected lower. This year the production of pears will be 175,000 MT, a 150 percent increase over last year. The consumption of pears is stable. As a result imports will be lower this year while the export of pears is estimated at 185,000 MT, up from 90,000 MT in 2001.

JAPAN, September 13, 2002 -- On August 30, the Food Agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries conducted its second Simultaneous Buy and Sell (SBS) rice tender for Japan Fiscal Year 2002 (April 2002 - March 2003). A total of 10,596 metric tons of foreign rice was contracted with the U.S. accounting for 6,807 metric tons, or 64% of the total. Contracts for Chinese rice slumped at 3,060 metric tons for a 29% market share.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 13, 2002 -- Poultry meat and egg production are expected to increase moderately over the next few years in order to meet rising domestic demand. Poultry product exports face difficulties due to continued problems with antibiotic residues and poultry diseases. Poultry product imports face continued difficulties due to import permit controls and restrictions.

EUROPEAN UNION, September 13, 2002 -- This weekly report contains data on rice prices in the U.S., Thailand and the EU. It also lists current import duties and export subsidies in the EU. All information will be published as such in the weekly USDA publication "Rice Market News".

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, September 13, 2002 -- Current corn consuption of U.S. corn exceeds one million tons. Higher international prices are not anticipated to lower the Dominican Republic's requirements for imported corn.

GREECE, September 13, 2002 -- An extremely cold winter and August storms have reduced apple production by 28% and pear production by 55% compared to 2001 levels. Table grapes were likewise negatively affected, especially due to hail damage, reducing production by 6 percent. Imports, usually supplied mostly by EU partners, are expected to reach 14,000 MT for apples, 28,000 MT for pears, and nearly 8,000 MT for table grapes. A new program registering land planted to table grapes and wine grapes is underway.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, September 13, 2002 -- The overall economic slowdown in the Dominican Republic and the increase in the international prices for wheat reduced wheat consuption in MY 2001 and anticipates further decrease in MY 2002.

CHILE, September 16, 2002 -- Chile's apple and pear production and exports forecasts are down, due to unstable weather conditions. At the same time, table grape new preliminary estimates are smaller than our forecast but larger than last year.

PHILIPPINES, September 13, 2002 -- Modest gains in Philippine live cattle and beef imports are forecast this year, with stronger sales predicted in 2003, as BSE-related concerns continue to subside. Strong Philippine pork production is forecast through next year, which will reduce already modest imports of swine meat.

THAILAND, September 16, 2002 -- Government stock release drives rice export price down.

SOUTH AFRICA, REPUBLIC OF, September 16, 2002 -- The final estimate of South Africa's 2001 corn crop is 9.1 million tons, barely sufficient to supply its own and the needs of its customs union partners. Demand was increased by a regional famine. In the free market environment international trade blossomed. Imports this season is expected to exceed 700,000 tons and exports 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the 2002 crop, soon to be planted, will increase. The area planted is expected to expand and if favorable weather continues, a 9.5 million ton crop can be expected. This will not necessarily mean that the tight supply situation will ease as the regional demand is expected to stay high, and consequently, so will prices.

CANADA, September 16, 2002 -- Total stocks of cereals, oilseeds and special crops on farms were down sharply from 2001 and were well below the 10-year average. The low stocks were a direct result of the poor production in 2001 that also reduced exports and decreased domestic usage. For 2002, the tight stock situation coupled with another disastrous crop will result in one of the most difficult years for the agriculture community in western Canada.

JAPAN, September 16, 2002 -- Japanese glulam imports also grew 9.4% to 593,300 cubic meters while production grew 15.5% to 1,030,100 cubic meters, from the previous year. While Northern European countries have increasingly dominated the Japanese market, in 2001, U.S. imports have dropped almost 25% to a 5 year low.

MEXICO, September 16, 2002 -- VIPS Restaurant Chain to Promote Soy-Based Dishes*Jalisco School Breakfast Program to Include TSP*Inflation Slows After July Peak

JAPAN, September 16, 2002 -- Housing starts in Japan declined 4.6% from previous year to 1,173,858 units in 2001, and for the first quarter of 2002, housing starts were 258,836, down 0.3% from the same period last year, as a result of Japan's continued economic problems. Wood-frame constructions was 44.5% of the total starts and 52.1% of total floor space constructed in 2001, both down from the previous year.

GERMANY, September 16, 2002 -- For CY 2002, German commercial apple production is estimated at 762,000 MT down 17 percent from CY 2001 due to adverse weather conditions during pollination. This is the lowest table apple harvest since 1995. Non-commercial production is estimated at 850,000 MT. Production of pears is forecast at 44,000 MT, down 6 percent, and production of concentrated apple juice (CAJ, 70.5 brix) at 75,000 MT up 19 percent.

AUSTRALIA, September 17, 2002 -- Post estimates poultry production for MY 2000/01 at 627 TMT and Post estimates production to increase 10 percent in MY 2001/02 to 689 TMT.

KENYA, September 17, 2002 -- Kenya's maize production is forecast to drop by about 10 percent in 2002/03. The decline is attributed to wide variability in onset, intensity and distribution of the long rains. Carryover stocks from the previous year will improve the general food security of the country. No major importations are expected. The biggest challenge facing the country is putting in place a proper strategic grain reserve and having an operational system to mitigate disasters.

URUGUAY, September 17, 2002 -- Uruguayan beef exports in 2003 are expected to increase from 240,000 MT to 250,000 MT due to larger production and stable domestic consumption. FMD is under control in Uruguay with key export markets reopened although the NAFTA countries remain closed. Cattle exports in 2003 are estimated to rebound slightly with the reopening of additional export markets, and gradually recuperating cattle prices in Argentina. Cattle stocks in 2003 will continue to increase as calf crop is again expected to more than offset a larger slaughter.

SOUTH AFRICA, REPUBLIC OF, September 17, 2002 -- South Africa's total production of apples, pears, and tablegrapes in CY2002 is expected to change marginally from last year, because of the fairly stable area planted. Farmers only replaced old orchards with new more competitive varieties. Deregulation and competitive exchange rate appear to be helping South Africa's fruit exports.

BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA, September 17, 2002 -- Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) recently submitted its draft Memorandum on Foreign Trade Regime to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This should clear the way for accession negotiations between BiH and WTO members. The BiH Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations (MOFTER), Azra Hadziahmetovic, optimistically expects the WTO accession process to be completed within next two years.

ARGENTINA, September 17, 2002 -- Argentine poultry exports in 2003 are forecast up at 14,000 metric tons. The strong devaluation of early 2002 has provided Argentina with improved export competitiveness. However, weak world prices and limited export capacity will restrain a larger expansion. Broiler production in 2003 is projected at 600,000 MT, the lowest level in the past ten years. Retail broiler prices have doubled due to increased feed costs as result of the devaluation, while prices of alternative meats and foods have increased less or remain more inexpensive, lowering domestic demand. Imports for 2003 are expected to increase to 20,000 MT as it is expected that the antidumping case filed by Argentina against low Brazilian export prices would be withdrawn before it expires in mid-2003.

FINLAND, September 17, 2002 -- The organic market in Finland has been increasing at a slow but steady rate over the past several years. Surveys indicate that 42 percent of the consumers purchase organic foods on an occasional basis. The number of regular buyers has risen from 11 to 19 percent since 1998. Although the outlook for the Finnish organic market is positive, U.S. exporters of organic food products face some significant challenges in the form of competition by local farmers and suppliers from European Union member countries.

VENEZUELA, September 18, 2002 -- Poultry production is estimated to decline in 2002 in response to increased cost of production and falling demand. Since Venezuela's poultry industry relies on domestically produced animal feed from imported components (corn, soybean meal and yellow grease) the effects of the Bolivar devaluation during the past six months had a severe impact on the cost of feed, forcing this sector to cut back production. In addition, restrictions on import licenses for feed grains have also increased costs. Poultry consumption is also decreasing as falling disposable incomes due to higher inflation and strong currency devaluation, have affected demand for sources of animal protein. No imports of poultry are expected for 2002 and the forecast for 2003 is zero imports as import permits are virtually impossible to obtain.

HONG KONG, September 18, 2002 -- Retained imports of chilled/frozen chicken products are forecast to rise 2% in 2002 and are expected to gradually replace freshly slaughtered chickens in the future as a result of lower prices and change in consumption pattern. China's administrative measures requiring permits limited meat imports and led to a sharp decrease in Hong Kong's imports in the past few months. US exports to Hong Kong also decreased 21% during the same time frame. The acute decline in US exports to Hong Kong is not only caused by reduced re-exports to China but also by keen competition from other supplying countries.

SOUTH AFRICA, REPUBLIC OF, September 18, 2002 -- With cattle numbers and meat production constant, the main interest is in trade developments. The South African currency devalued substantially since September 2001 virtually cutting off overseas imports but opening up lucrative export markets. With the lifting of the FMD ban in July and a commitment to comply with the latest EU market requirements including traceability, good farming practices, high animal welfare standards, high product safety, minimum residues, etc., the industry hopes to increase exports to about 30,000 tons of high quality beef in the next few years.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 13, 2002 -- This report is the China Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards Working Index. It is an index of all the food and food import regulations that have been translated by the Agricultural Affairs Office of the US Embassy in Beijing. All translations are UNOFFICIAL.

ROMANIA, September 18, 2002 -- Effective demand for poultry is expected to grow in Romania, capitalizing on growing incomes. The sector continues to remain highly protected, with the applied MFN rate currently standing at 45 percent, while health requirements are tightening. In 2002 Romania has granted preferential treatment to EU for a 3450 MT quota, but, there are still important opportunities for U.S. exporters to sell relatively low-priced products (especially frozen leg quarters).

INDIA, September 18, 2002 -- India has traditionally maintained a highly restrictive import market for food products. However, since 1997, there has been a gradual liberalization, culminating in the removal of all quantitative restrictions on April 1, 2001. India, with a population of more than one billion and a vibrant economy growing annually at 5-6 percent in the last few years, is a potentially huge and emerging market for imported food products. Please take advantage of India's market opportunities by participating in one of our market promotion events.

BULGARIA, September 18, 2002 -- Bulgarian livestock industry faced feed shortages in CY2000/01 which led to reduction in animal numbers and meat shortages. Good feed supply in CY2002 is expected to change this trend. Reforms in the sector led to higher commercialization and improved quality of products, especially in the pork industry. Meat imports which were record high in CY2001 totaling 37,000 MT, and are expected to continue due to increasing demand for better quality cuts to meet the needs of developing food service and meat processing sectors. U.S. opportunities for meat exports continue to be excellent for high quality beef steaks and pork for processing due to favorable demand and liberal veterinary policy.

CANADA, September 18, 2002 -- "What's New, Eh?" * Second Detection of Potato Wart this Season on P.E.I. * Lower Beef Production next Year , Higher Pork Output * Southern Ontario Dairy Farmers to Supply Michigan Processor * Former Ag Minister Warns Against End to Supply Management * Grain Stocks down Sharply for 2002 Reports Statistics Canada * Canadian Wheat Board Pulls out of Market * Western Canadian Wheat Farmers Pick Jail over Paying Fines * Ontario Wheat Board Wants Right to Issue Own Export Certificate * Traders Estimate Increased Feed Grain Imports into Eastern Canada * Canada May Export Wheat to Iraq, Despite Earlier Denials * Wet Weather Continues to Hamper Saskatchewan Harvest Progress and Downgrade Crops * Transportation Agency Denies Ferroequus's Application to Use Facilities Owned by CN Rail * Canadian Food Inspection Agency Proposals to Amend the Variety Registration System

VENEZUELA, September 19, 2002 -- This market of 25 million people has one of the highest per capita GDPs in the region and is a market for both traditional bulk commodities and well as highly processed consumer products. A strong consumer preference exists for practically anything associated with the United States, which gives an advantage to U.S. consumer-ready food products. However, a major devaluation in 2002, and a series of government restrictions on imports has made this a more difficult market for U.S. exporters to access.

PHILIPPINES, September 20, 2002 -- Coconut oil exports in April 2002 declined 47 while those of copra meal dropped 30 percent compared to their levels the previous year. There were no copra exports during the month.

PHILIPPINES, September 20, 2002 -- Coconut oil exports in May 2002 declined 47 while those of copra meal dropped 81 percent compared to their levels the previous year. There were no copra exports during the month.

PHILIPPINES, September 16, 2002 -- To ensure smooth implementation of new Philippine regulations governing the importation and use of genetically modified (GM) plants and plant products, Post and TIP/FID/ICD organized a highly successful training needs assessment of Philippine regulators by a U.S. biotech expert. The assessment resulted in a number of concrete recommendations designed to build capacity and prevent disruptions to trade in U.S. foods containing GM plant products, worth more than $400 million per year. The regulations become effective in June, 2003.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 19, 2002 -- Growing domestic demand, lower tariffs and low world prices will push beef imports up sharply in 2002 and 2003. Swine industry growth will slow over the next year as production has outstripped demand, but some relief will come from good export growth to the newly opened Russian market.

THAILAND, September 19, 2002 -- Import demand for wheat in MY 2002/03 is expected to decline in response to the combined effects of (1) high levels of the beginning stocks, (2) a sharp rise in the international prices, and (3) only a modest increase in domestic consumption.

ROMANIA, September 19, 2002 -- In 2001 cattle on feed registered a historical low and pork inventories bottomed out. Both sectors began to recover in the past year. Romania is a net importer of both pork and beef, but is not allowed to export either of the two products to the EU market. In its effort to adopt legislation consistent with EU, Romania's sanitary requirements are becoming stricter. There are increased opportunities for U.S. pork and offals sales. Beef exports are hindered by the requirements for "hormone-free" meat.

PORTUGAL, September 19, 2002 -- This report provides information on Portugal's value-added food market and provides practical tips to U.S. companies regarding exporting to Portugal, an increasingly bigger but frequently overlooked market.

TURKEY, September 20, 2002 -- The Turkish Livestock sector continues to decline and there are insufficient government and private sector funds to support it. Although domestic demand is high, cattle imports have been muted. This is due primarily to the current economic crisis as well as the ban on imports from BSE- affected countries. The government continues to prohibit imports of meat and beef/fattening cattle. In addition, imports of beef are prohibited as a way of protecting Turkey's domestic industry despite demand for high-quality beef, particularly in the tourist industry.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 20, 2002 -- This is the first report of ATO Guangzhou's Product Assessment Support Services (PASS). Twelve of 17 new products have sales potentials in South China.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 19, 2002 -- This report contains import specialist contact information for USDA offices, USDA public and private cooperators, US State representative offices, and associations that promote US and China trade. Contact the Agricultural Affairs Office of the US Embassy in Beijing for any further inquiries.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 19, 2002 -- This is an UNOFFICIAL translation of the People's Republic of china Administrative Measures for Import and Export Meat Product Inspection and Quarantine and should be used as a guide only. Exporters should carefully discuss regulations and their application with Chinese importers to ensure that their interpretation of the regulations is accurate.

THAILAND, September 20, 2002 -- Export prices declined mainly in response to the depreciation of Thai Baht.

INDONESIA, September 20, 2002 -- Indonesia's total wheat imports are expected to increase by 10 percent in MY2002/03, to 5 MMT reflecting increasing demand for noodles and bakery products. Post estimate for imports of wheat/flour in MY2001/02 is increased to 4.8 MMT. Consumption in both years is also revised upward.

TAIWAN, September 20, 2002 -- While the Taiwan’s general market for poultry meat and products stagnates, opportunities for imports, particularly chicken leg quarters and offal, are growing. Over the coming 2~3 years, the US stands to gain most from market opening measures, principally due to the fact that most competing exporting nations have yet to receive required phytosanitary approvals for import into Taiwan. Relaxation or elimination of poultry-related quotas and bans at the start of 2002 have already resulted in much better sales for US exporters of chicken meat and offal.

UKRAINE, September 20, 2002 -- Broiler meat exports to Ukraine will continue to decline as a result of the ban on U.S. poultry meat coupled with increased domestic production.

SPAIN, September 20, 2002 -- Adverse weather conditions in the main apple and pear producing area lead to a decrease of these two crops during the current marketing year.

JAPAN, September 20, 2002 -- No summary available.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION, September 20, 2002 -- Although not expected to be a record large harvest, deciduous fruit production of 1.63 mmt in MY 2002 is an improvement over MY2001. Apple imports should expand slightly, while pear imports are expected to be stable this year and slowly increase in the future. Imports of fruits, juices and juice concentrates are being used increasingly by large Russian processors. These imports augment variable local fruit supplies and fit well into processing systems.

CANADA, September 20, 2002 -- Canadian broiler chicken production is expected to increase by almost 2.0% in 2002 and reach a record 945,000 metric tons. Production prospects for 2003 indicate another year-to-year increase of about 2-3%. During 2001, the value of U.S. poultry meat exports to Canada reached a record $263 million. Canada has recently recognized the poultry meat inspection system of Brazil, a development that provides the potential for cheap Brazilian chicken to displace U.S. chicken in the Canadian market.

ARGENTINA, September 20, 2002 -- Apple production in CY 2002 is now estimated at 900,000 MT, 30 percent lower than in CY 2001, while exports of fresh apples and concentrated apple juice are also expected to fall bellow previous estimates. Despite falling international prices and lower production during CY 2002, the peso's devaluation in ealy 2002 has resulted in sufficient revenues in peso terms for producers. CY 2003 pear and apple's quality are expected to be the best of the last five years. Necessary agricultural practices, abandoned because of the economic crisis, have now been retaken. Together with the higher use of agrochemicals to reduce pest attacks on the crops the result will be better fruit quality.

HONDURAS, September 20, 2002 -- This FAIRS report provides updates to three Sections: Food Laws, Other Regulatory Requirements, and Import Procedures due to changes in Honduras' food laws, and agency's responsibilities of some of the regulatory requirements and several of the import procedures.

JAPAN, September 20, 2002 -- No summary available.

JAPAN, September 20, 2002 -- No summary available.

CHINA, PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF, September 19, 2002 -- This is an UNOFFICIAL English translation of the People's Republic of China AQSIQ Notice on Certificates for US Potato Products and should be used as a guide only. Exporters should carefully discuss regulations and their application with Chinese importers to ensure that their interpretation of the regulation is accurate.

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