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FAS Daily Attache Report Digest
May 19, 2004

FAS Daily Attache Report Digest

Annual

INDIA, May 19, 2004 -- Indian cotton production in MY 2004/05 is forecast to decline marginally to 16.2 million bales (170 kg) because of a likely lower yield despite an increase in planted area. Cotton consumption is expected to increase to 17.1 million bales on expectations of low cotton prices and improved demand by the textile mills. Cotton imports are projected lower at 1.2 million bales on comfortable domestic supplies.

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Annual

INDIA, May 19, 2004 -- India's oilseeds production is forecast to increase marginally by 2 percent to 29.8 million tons during MY 2004 and boost domestic consumption of oil meals forecast at 9.1 million tons. Despite increased MY 2004 oilseeds production, growing average incomes and forecast softening of MY 2004 edible oil prices are expected to result in higher MY 2004 edible oil imports estimated at 5.1 million tons compared with an estimated 4.7 million tons, a year ago.

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Philippine Food Processing Ingredients Sector

PHILIPPINES, May 19, 2004 -- The Philippine food processing industry continues to expand, with total sales exceeding $10 billion/year. The United States is a top supplier of ingredients to Philippine manufacturers, although competition from other foreign suppliers has intensified. Major imported food ingredients include: wheat, dairy products such as milk and whey powders, processed fruits and vegetables, beef and beef products, and nuts. Continued strong demand for basic food ingredients is forecast fueled by a rapidly growing population and limited supplies of locally produced inputs. Sales of costly ingredients will continue sluggish due to persistent price sensitivity in the Philippine food and beverage market.

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Semi-Annual

NEW ZEALAND, May 19, 2004 -- New Zealand's milk production in the 2003/04 season is estimated at 14.78 million tons, 3 percent above a year earlier

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Annual

TURKMENISTAN, May 19, 2004 -- After two very poor years, the Government of Turkmenistan has again announced an unrealistically high target of seed cotton production at 2.2 million tons on 650,000 hectares. Post estimates that cotton will be planted on approximately 500,000 hectares with production estimated at 200,000 tons.

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Annual

VENEZUELA, May 19, 2004 -- After showing a slight recovery in production in 2003/04, Venezuelan sugar production is forecast to remain stagnant in 2004/05. Domestic production is still insufficient to fully meet local demand, and imports, mainly of raw sugar, are once again expected to be around 270,000 tons. Export levels are hard to track as much of that product goes through non-official channels and the recent shifts in exchange rates have made it more profitable to export sugar to Colombia. In November 2003 there were spot sugar shortages at the retail level due to a delay in the issuance of import licenses. The Venezuelan government maintains a tight control over the sugar import license regime, and with the government also now importing sugar there is some concern by the private sector that licenses will be delayed again this year.

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Annual

BANGLADESH, May 19, 2004 -- MY 2004/05 cotton imports are forecast to increase by 7.5 percent to 360,000 ton. New spinning mills are the main driving force for higher imports and consumption. The U.S. cotton share is likely to remain at 19 percent despite strong competition from CIS countries.

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Weekly Highlights & Hot Bites, #18

INDIA, May 19, 2004 -- *WTO consistent grain export subsidy unlikely*, *Handle with care - Have a public debate on GM crops*, *Swami's far-fetched dreams of autonomous regulator*, *India fifth among 30 emerging global retail markets*, *Retail industry sector may be split for FDI inflow*.

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Annual

THAILAND, May 19, 2004 -- US Soybean exports to Thailand are expected to grow in the coming marketing year as total demand for beans increases. US export opportunities for soybean meal, however, are bleak because low-cost supplies are taking over this market. Thailand continues to rely heavily on palm oil for about 70 percent of vegetable oil needs.

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Annual

THAILAND, May 19, 2004 -- MY 2004/05 raw cotton import demand will likely recover from the previous year's contraction, following anticipated favorable domestic and export demand for high quality Thai textile products, as intense competition increases in the U.S. market among low-cost textile producers.

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Semi-Annual

SOUTH AFRICA, REPUBLIC OF, May 19, 2004 -- The country is currently experiencing some dry weather in the northern region, around Mpumalanga. The weather is expected to produce a bigger-sized citrus fruit of good quality. Total 2004 production is expected around 1.7 million MT. Farmers expect lower profits tis year due to a stronger Rand. Exports are expected at about 1.08 million MT, a slight improvement from last year because of poor harvests in major fruit growing countries.

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Annual

ROMANIA, May 19, 2004 -- Following the trend of the textile and garment sectors, Romania's cotton spinning industry is edging towards putting a stop to the decline of the last few years. Most of the raw cotton is imported from Uzbekistan, Greece, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey, but industry representatives assess that there are opportunities for 5-10 thousand MT of US cotton annually. As Romania is approaching the EU accession, the sector will radically change, confronted with major challenges like customs duty regime liberalization, wage increases, the elimination of fiscal incentives that currently benefit the SMEs, increased environmental costs, etc.

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Labeling and Presentation of Fresh Fruits and Vegetables

EU-25, May 19, 2004 -- Labeling requirements for fresh fruits and vegetables are laid down in the annexes to the regulations on marketing standards. The annexes stipulate that the labels on all packages must include the name and address of the packer/dispatcher, the nature of the produce, its origin and commercial specifications. Commission Regulation 907/2004 amends the marketing standards applicable to fresh fruit and vegetables with regards to presentation and labeling.

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Semi-annual

EU-15, May 19, 2004 -- The EU-15 2003 drought actually led to an increase in milk production as farmers compensated by increasing high quality feed. For 2004, production is forecast to decline from last year's high level, adjusting to quota levels. In 2003, EU-15 butter and NFDM exports increased due to the limited competition from Australia. In 2004, market conditions for butter and NFDM are expected to deteriorate. As a result, dairy processors are expected to increase cheese production this year. Production of WMP is expected to increase due to exports subsidies for milk powder to Iraq. In the 10 New Member States subsistence farming is very important. With access to more modern feed and genetics, deliveries to dairies are expected to grow rapidly.

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New EU-25 Veterinary Certificates for Transshipments

EU-25, May 19, 2004 -- Existing EU decisions on the certification of a series of animal products have been amended to incorporate specific provisions for transshipments to and from Russia via the Community following the eastward expansion of the EU.

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Annual

SPAIN, May 19, 2004 -- This report just includes the PS&D table for cotton. The entire report will be sent no later than May 31.

 

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Food Prices Continue to Rise- Controlled or Not

VENEZUELA, May 19, 2004 -- The Venezuelan government announced another set of adjustments to its price control list for food effective April 15, 2004. This followed a smaller set of adjustments announced on February 9, 2004 and both sets of adjustments are attempts to realign prices following this year's devaluation of the Bolivar by 20 percent. Open market prices in some (but not all) cases are running above the price control level, and the 30 percent increase in the minimum wage effective May 1,2004 is expected to fuel even more price hikes. Post first reported on the food price controls last August in VE3008, and the system continues to function in much the same manner. The problem of spot shortages of specific food products linked to the price controls has been reduced, but not eliminated.

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Annual

ECUADOR, May 19, 2004 -- Ecuador's coffee production will decrease for MY 2004/2005 due to lack of incentives to harvest all available beans and lack of investments in fields. Ecuador exports more coffee products than coffee beans. The coffee industry, in order to comply with their commitments, will import 200,000 60 kgs. bag of coffee beans under a temporary admission regime

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Annual

ARGENTINA, May 19, 2004 -- Argentine cotton production for Marketing Year (MY) 2004 (August 2004-July 2005) is estimated at 135,000 metric tons, higher than the past three crops. Producers are expected to expand planted area primarily because of good returns. With a stable domestic consumption, imports are forecast to drop to 15,000 tons, with Brazil and Paraguay as the main suppliers. Exports are projected to increase at 30,000 tons, with Latin American countries being the main destination.

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