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World wheat situation and
outlook
World wheat trade in 2001/02 is
forecast to be 107.8 million tons, up 4.4 million tons from
2000/01. Global production is forecast down 4.2 million tons
and is expected to remain below consumption for the third
consecutive year. Global stocks are forecast down 9.9 million
tons from last year to the lowest level since 1996/97.
In early March, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged
$125/MT, the same as last month. Global production is up
slightly on a larger Australian crop. Global consumption is
forecast down 1.6 million tons while ending stocks are
forecast up 2.0 million tons. Global wheat trade in 2001/02 is
forecast virtually unchanged from last month with more exports
from Canada, Ukraine, and Russia mostly offset by less exports
from the United States and the EU. Paradoxically, with this
month’s higher import estimate, the EU is now also expected to
be the world’s largest importer.
2001/2002 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
United States down 500,000 tons to 27 million due to the slow
export pace, lagging global imports, and intense competition.
Canada up 500,000 tons to 16.5 million due to an aggressive
export pace.
EU down 500,000 tons to 11 million based on the slow pace of
export licenses and strong competition.
Ukraine and Russia exports up 500,000 tons to 5 million and
300,000 tons to 2.8 million, respectively, due to the strong
pace of shipments, especially to the EU.
Selected Importers
EU up 500,000 tons to 7 million due to competitively priced
imports, even with higher duties on lower quality wheat and
falling internal prices.
FAO
Views
presented here are of those of the writer and Pakissan.com is
not liable them.
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Pakissan.com;
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