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Cotton crop estimates
By Zafar Samdani
Every year when the cotton crop is close to the harvesting
stage, speculations about its size commence and so does
fluctuation of the price of cotton seed in the market.
 Farmers are placed under pressure before the crop's arrival in
the market. The game, played by an unholy alliance of all
variety of speculators and rake off experts, is forcing
farmers to sell at low rates.
The government seems to have finally woken up to this yearly
occurrence that is actually organized crime against cotton
growers, particularly small farmers; big landowners have means
to safeguard, indeed further their interests under all
dispensations. Their network of ginning factories and textile
mills provides them protection and profits.
The federal government has ostensibly decided to counter
negative factors in the cotton growing sector and has come up
with the recipe of joint monitoring of prices by the
ministries of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) and
Commerce.
Their monitoring plus intervention by the Trading Corporation
of Pakistan (TCP) is the official prescription for ensuring
that farmers receive fair return for their physical, financial
and professional investment in the cotton crop.
TCP is a familiar player on the cotton scene but it is hard to
recall the last time, for that matter any stage when its
previous forays in the market and efforts to stabilize prices
to protect growers against a ride yielded worthwhile results.
Its record reminds one of the manner in which police operates,
arriving late on the scene of the crime.
It gets into action when small farmers have already been
skinned and then concentrates on bailing privileged farmers
and their low quality produce. In view of this background,
TCP's contribution this year can only be viewed with
suspicion, if not with distrust, at least at the present
stage.
Reports about prospects of the crop now in the fields are
based on a larger area of cotton cultivation this year.
Normally, this should have been convincing reason to expect a
bigger crop but the water situation has been acute; that
places a question mark about its size.
Availability of water is crucial for the crop and there can
be, at least there should not be any declaration about the
size till the last watering has been successfully carried out
across cotton fields.
Punjab, the largest cotton land in the country has been
pressing IRSA, the government's water distribution body, to
increase supplies for the standing crops of cotton and sugar
cane.
This is hardly conducive for ensuring optimum results from the
crop that is now in the home stretch. The issue should have
been resolved much before if the purpose was providing
sufficient water for the crops.
I talked about the crop with some farmers and found them
optimistic about the yield from their farms provided water
availability was according to requirements. They were less
than satisfied with irrigation till the middle of September.
Weather conditions were fortunately conducive for the crop's
growth but shortage of water had left many farmers uncertain
of the produce. There were other negative factors like the
possibility of pest attack and availability of fertilizers and
pesticides too but water headed the list of their
requirements.
Some of the actions of the federal government may have
unwittingly undermined the growth of the crop while cotton was
in the fields. Joint monitoring of seed cotton price by two
ministries is a positive and welcome step but the ministries
could also have adopted a collective approach for the benefit
of the crop by intervening to ensure continuous supply of DAP.
That the government intended to reduce the price of phosphate
fertilizer became widely known much before the decision was
made public. Policy makers of Pakistan are not reputed for
keeping their plans to themselves, either because they deem
secrecy unnecessary or there are elements with capacity to
find out things for quick profits.
Timely hoarding of stocks and delayed imports produce fat
profits; who cares if they are the cost of crops. As a result
of information reaching profiteers before official
announcement, stocks of DAP were reportedly withheld by some
dealers.
It has not been ascertained if that caused a shortage of
fertilizer for growers and affected the crop but the
importance of timely application of fertilizers cannot be over
emphasized as they make a vital contribution towards the
nourishment of crops.
The impact of fertilizers on crops has assumed great
importance in recent times because many fields have suffered
considerable loss of fertility over the years because of
over-use.
The quality of land in Pakistan has considerably suffered
because it has been exploited without respite and no steps
have been taken for restoring its productivity. Fertilizer
application has thus come to play a major role in agriculture
sector's productivity.
Pests are another factor that affects cotton. Estimates of the
crop's size had to be revised downwards more than once in the
past few years because of late invasion of pests.
Cultivation area is the starting point but it is not the only
point for determining the produce. It represents the
potential, not the final output. As such, the government
should always be careful about predicting the size of any
crop, let alone those that can be subjected to price
speculations.
Hasty estimates and officials and public sector experts
believing in their predictions can trigger untold problems.
This has already been witnessed in the case of wheat in the
preceding season when MINFAL bosses were enthusiastically
declaring a high crop but ended up importing wheat to meet
domestic consumption needs.
This did not cause embarrassment to MINFAL because, by the
time the advantage of being wheat sufficient country was
squandered, the ministry underwent a change of political and
civilian officials.
Every one was given a new assignment, presumably to create a
new mess in another sector. No one seems accountable for the
fact that considerable damage was inflicted on the country and
that the farming sector, the backbone of the national economy,
suffered a major set back.
It does not follow that the size of crops should not be
calculated at any stage but that finality in estimates better
be avoided and no harm would be done if they are on the lower
side.
On the other hand, when high expectations are not met, a lot
crashes down besides the estimate of a crop's size. In the
case of cotton, it would involve imports for the textile
sector, a development that mars earnings from exports.
The officially expected yield this year is 10.7 million bales.
Such a produce would be a good crop but not a bumper one by
any means. Last year's support price of 925 rupees per 40 kg
of phutti has been maintained by the government.
In the ultimate, however, the price would follow the
international pattern. Which means this would be the minimum
rate while a higher rate is not to be ruled out if there is a
world wide escalation in the price of seed cotton.
The task before TCP and the monitoring teams representing two
ministries is thus not merely ensuring that farmers receive
the support price but that they are not deprived of a better
deal if the international market follows an upward trend in
the rate for seed cotton.
It should go without saying that growers should have at least
as much right to sell at the same rates at which textile
millers are allowed to import their requirements. That would
be fair price. Can TCP, MINFAL and Commerce ministry guarantee
that? Their success in safeguarding the rights of the farming
community would determine whether they worked for cotton
growers or, as has been the case in the past, simply served
special interests in the name of equity.
Courtesy :
The DAWN
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Pakissan.com;
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