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World Consumption

The world rice consumption has increased for the last three years. This upward trend is predicted to continue in 2001/02, when the world will consume up to 405.856 million metric tons of rice.

This increase is significant, comparing to a mere 388.792 million metric tons in 1998/99. China, the world's most populous country, consumes the most rice. In general, rice consumption has increased in every country from year to year.

Thailand consumes 9.9 million metric tons in 2000/01 and is predicted to increase the consumption to approximately 10 million metric tons in 2001/02. In conjunction with the world's rising consumption level, the world's rice production will also expand in order to meet this higher demand.

Following closely behind is Vietnam at 4 million metric tons, while the United States is ranked third with 2.65 million metric tons.

Pakistan is quickly gaining more exports share, with 2.25 million metric tons projected for the end of 2001. China and India, on the other hand, have slowed down their pace with 1.8 and 0.8 million metric tons.

In 2002, Thailand will continue to stay on top at a predicted 6.7 million metric tons. Following closely behind is still Vietnam at 4.3 million metric tons. The United States remain unchanged at 2.65 million metric tons.

Pakistan and India will likely reduce their exports volume to 2 and 1 million metric tons, respectively, while China's estimate is expected to increase to 2 million metric tons.

The total world export volume will decline slightly from 22.255 to 22.139 million metric tons from 2001 to 2002, a significant decline from 1999 at 25.062 million metric tons.

Units in thousand metric tons

Country	1998/99	1999/00	2000/01	2001/02
China	136,000	133,763	134,337	136,110
India	81,160	82,450	83,500	85,000
Indonesia	35,504	25,400	35,877	36,358
Bangladesh	20,750	23,666	23,950	24,025
Vietnam	15,613	16,767	16,958	17,100
Burma	9,276	9,330	9,350	9,450
Japan	9,100	9,450	9,300	9,300
Thailand	8,900	9,600	9,900	10,000
Philippines	8,000	8,400	8,750	8,815
Brazil	8,180	7,956	7,958	8,000
World Total	388,792	398,518	400,971	405,856
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Aug 2001.

World Price for Rice

Global Rice Price Trend (1996 - 2003)

Units: USD/metric ton

Type	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
Long Grain Rice, High Quality
Thai 100% B (FOB)	338	306	296	300	300	309	310	317	319	323
Thai 5% (FOB)	331	295	285	289	289	297	299	305	307	311
US No. 2, (FOB Houston)	450	418	413	409	414	424	428	435	438	443
US No. 2 - Thai 5%	119	123	128	121	125	127	129	129	131	132
Long Grain Rice, Low Quality
Thai 35% (FOB)	259	254	244	248	253	260	261	267	270	275
US Wheat No.2 (FOB Gulf)	184	155	150	151	157	159	160	162	164	166
Thai 35% - US Wheat	75	99	95	97	96	101	101	105	106	106
Medium Grain Rice
US No. 2 MG Rice(FOB CA)	415	396	409	406	407	411	412	415	417	420

Source: Division of Agriculture, University of Arkensas, Aug 1998.

According to the Arkensas Global Rice Model, the global rice price for major long-grain and medium grain rice is currently lower than in the previous years. This drop in the global price comes from a slight decrease in the rice production of major rice-producing countries, beginning in 1998.

According to the USDA, nominal price quotes for milled rice have declined over the past twelve months.

Prices for Thailand's 100 percent grade B are 25 percent below that of a year earlier. Similarly, prices for Vietnam's 5% broken and Pakistan's 15/20 percent are also lower. Prices are currently reported below usd 190 per metric ton for both of these grades. Overall, rice prices are still more than 20 percent below levels reported a year ago.

However, the report by the Division of Agriculture, University of Arkensas, states an upward price trend beginning from the year 2000. This report predict that the trend will continue to increase until the year 2005.

World Price for Rice

Export Price FOB Bangkok (as of Aug '01)
(US$: Metric Ton)

Types of Rice	FOB Price	Types of Rice	FOB Price
White Fragrant Rice 100% Class A	295	White broken rice A1 super excellent	152
White Fragrant Rice 100% Class B	275	White broken rice A1 super	140
White100% milled rice Class A	205	White broken rice A1 special	137
White100% milled rice Class B	180	Cargo rice 100% Class B	175
White100% milled rice Class C	175	Cargo rice 5%	160
White 5% milled rice Super	-	Cargo rice 10%	155
White 5% milled rice	170	Cargo rice 15%	150
White 10% milled rice	165	Parboiled rice 100%	215
White 15% milled rice	160	Parboiled rice 5 %	210
White 25% milled rice super	155	Parboiled rice 10 %	205
White 35% milled rice	150	Parboiled rice 15	195
White 45% milled rice	145	Parboiled rice 25 %	185
Broken glutinous rice A1 special	215	Parboiled rice 35 %	180
Glutinous white rice 10%	280	Broken parboiled rice A1	150

Source: Thai Rice Mills Association